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GPT-6 trails at 66%, reflecting OpenAI's accelerated post-GPT-5 roadmap amid AI industry buzz, while new Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums hover at 62% and 55% on artist teases aligning with Q2-Q3 release windows. 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GPT-6 trails at 66%, reflecting OpenAI's accelerated post-GPT-5 roadmap amid AI industry buzz, while new Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums hover at 62% and 55% on artist teases aligning with Q2-Q3 release windows. 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GPT-6 trails at 66%, reflecting OpenAI's accelerated post-GPT-5 roadmap amid AI industry buzz, while new Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums hover at 62% and 55% on artist teases aligning with Q2-Q3 release windows. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.4935\", \"0.5065\"]","volume":"4030144.904360553","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T15:24:45.04244Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-25T16:46:25.32975Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Bitcoin hits $1m","groupItemThreshold":"7","questionID":"0x7e4ff7b7fdfe7d1fbc6c0e2a7626ae4fc8d62f3848a5e601d511a51bdfa51f09","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":4030144.904360553,"liquidityNum":479607.99693,"endDateIso":"2026-07-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":9937.329533000002,"volume1wk":32998.091456000024,"volume1mo":270632.5803719979,"volume1yr":4030144.9043607963,"clobTokenIds":"[\"105267568073659068217311993901927962476298440625043565106676088842803600775810\", \"91863162118308663069733924043159186005106558783397508844234610341221325526200\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":9937.329533000002,"volume1wkClob":32998.091456000024,"volume1moClob":270632.5803719979,"volume1yrClob":4030144.9043607963,"volumeClob":4030144.904360553,"liquidityClob":479607.99693,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23784","ticker":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","slug":"what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","title":"What will happen before GTA VI?","description":"This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262673Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T15:48:25.262669Z","endDate":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-7hpNkEzQEqUE.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":1579392.63808,"volume":21373749.817712575,"openInterest":724478.9883120002,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2025-05-02T14:55:28.249386Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-25T16:50:56.556063Z","competitive":0.9999577517849871,"volume24hr":22745.842795000004,"volume1wk":232055.08805399959,"volume1mo":1926394.5907630194,"volume1yr":21373749.817713667,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":1579392.63808,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":817,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader consensus on Polymarket crowns Drake's Iceman album release as the overwhelming frontrunner at 98% implied probability before GTA VI's confirmed November 19, 2026 launch on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, propelled by recent production confirmations and escalating feud momentum with Kendrick Lamar boosting promotional hype for a likely summer drop. GPT-6 trails at 66%, reflecting OpenAI's accelerated post-GPT-5 roadmap amid AI industry buzz, while new Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums hover at 62% and 55% on artist teases aligning with Q2-Q3 release windows. GTA VI's timeline remains firm after 2025 delays, with no slippage signals in recent weeks; watch Take-Two's mid-May earnings call and rumored Trailer 3 for potential catalysts amid high unpredictability in music drops and tech launches.","context_requires_regen":true,"context_updated_at":"2026-04-25T16:46:34.886Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:49Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9999577517849871,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"22689","conditionId":"0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":2,"startDate":"2025-05-02","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.003,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.003,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.002,"oneMonthPriceChange":0.0085,"lastTradePrice":0.495,"bestBid":0.492,"bestAsk":0.495,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T15:47:04.724576Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"540881","question":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","conditionId":"0xcccb7e7613a087c132b69cbf3a02bece3fdcb824c1da54ae79acc8d4a562d902","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"67112.00836","startDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:26.233Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.0095\", \"0.9905\"]","volume":"13831618.260782022","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:35.469183Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-25T16:49:47.686693Z","new":false,"featured":true,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xd8d82bd063da64aea9f8a0c10f7e0b1510d15cefb2468bccc94c0572336095a2","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":13831618.260782022,"liquidityNum":67112.00836,"endDateIso":"2026-05-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-02","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":81786.35987599999,"volume1wk":193874.5071370001,"volume1mo":986920.9075349997,"volume1yr":13831618.260781983,"clobTokenIds":"[\"8441400852834915183759801017793514978104486628517653995211751018945988243154\", \"109289569086508934142323222102974769075074494425163878721602922903101062859033\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":81786.35987599999,"volume1wkClob":193874.5071370001,"volume1moClob":986920.9075349997,"volume1yrClob":13831618.260781983,"volumeClob":13831618.260782022,"liquidityClob":67112.00836,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"23792","ticker":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","title":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:29.269386Z","creationDate":"2025-05-02T17:00:29.269383Z","endDate":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026-igCgZsDMejF1.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":67057.40836,"volume":13831618.260782022,"openInterest":215057.65543,"createdAt":"2025-05-02T16:53:34.884115Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-25T16:49:55.875134Z","competitive":0.806067918073675,"volume24hr":82805.779876,"volume1wk":194025.16059800007,"volume1mo":986920.9075349997,"volume1yr":13831618.260781983,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":67057.40836,"commentCount":29,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs \"No\" for GTA VI releasing before June 2026, driven by Rockstar Games' official November 19, 2026 launch date announced after two prior delays—from Fall 2025 to May 26, 2026, then to late 2026. This reflects the developer's history of prioritizing polish over rushed timelines, as seen with past Grand Theft Auto titles, amid no recent updates signaling advancement despite speculation around Trailer 3 or Take-Two earnings calls. With just weeks until June but seven months from the confirmed premiere on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, the market-implied odds capture ironclad certainty, though an unprecedented early-access surprise or certification miracle could theoretically spark an upset—scenarios traders dismiss given Rockstar's track record.","context_requires_regen":true,"context_updated_at":"2026-04-25T16:46:55.448Z"}}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2025-05-02T17:00:01Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.806067918073675,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":3.5,"spread":0.001,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.001,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.004,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.012,"lastTradePrice":0.01,"bestBid":0.009,"bestAsk":0.01,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-02T16:59:24.952285Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null},{"id":"544092","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?","conditionId":"0xf398b0e5016eeaee9b0885ed84012b6dc91269ac10d3b59d60722859c2e30b2f","slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-no-prison-time","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"1585.06232","startDate":"2025-05-12T22:50:41.123Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":"[\"Yes\", \"No\"]","outcomePrices":"[\"0.357\", \"0.643\"]","volume":"322560.66802300134","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2025-05-12T22:26:22.665665Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-25T16:49:34.558624Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"No Prison Time","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":322560.66802300134,"liquidityNum":1585.06232,"endDateIso":"2025-12-31","startDateIso":"2025-05-12","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":311.014948,"volume1wk":4332.269383999998,"volume1mo":97519.38304300005,"volume1yr":322560.66802299983,"clobTokenIds":"[\"24327803960645909378149041810697343640752122608192367041827900158592826352552\", \"86488478623677188352872801318507143761188967461168408688159600382919967378486\"]","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volume24hrClob":311.014948,"volume1wkClob":4332.269383999998,"volume1moClob":97519.38304300005,"volume1yrClob":322560.66802299983,"volumeClob":322560.66802300134,"liquidityClob":1585.06232,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","negRiskRequestID":"0x568eb63b725b4f413c514498165e6383f25612ac8a278bee67fd629cef2ce519","events":[{"id":"24383","ticker":"harvey-weinstein-prison-time","slug":"harvey-weinstein-prison-time","title":"Harvey Weinstein prison time?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2025-05-12T22:52:24.091151Z","creationDate":"2025-05-12T22:52:24.091148Z","endDate":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/harvey-weinstein-prison-time-C0vjbSkDw4Cy.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":12494.44218,"volume":874454.1262750012,"openInterest":48396.097999000005,"createdAt":"2025-05-12T22:26:22.013988Z","updatedAt":"2026-04-25T16:49:23.165313Z","competitive":0.9799607819695056,"volume24hr":3769.288409999999,"volume1wk":37515.115718,"volume1mo":266770.94213400007,"volume1yr":874454.1262749997,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":12494.44218,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xaa0edfa656a0e70bf8c63f09438cd70979fef8e31fcc62d80840b5a375a55400","commentCount":14,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2025-05-12T22:46:49.174275Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time, with No Prison Time (35.7%) narrowly leading 20-30 years (31.5%) amid his ongoing third New York rape retrial, where opening statements began April 21, 2026, accusing him of assaulting Jessica Mann over a decade ago. This follows a 2024 appeals court overturn of his original 23-year sentence, a 2025 retrial conviction for sexual assault (up to 25 years, unsentenced), and a California 16-year rape term under appeal—creating paths for full exoneration via acquittal or successful challenges versus compounded time if convictions hold. 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